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Plus VMI's vs Minus VMI's in Basketball

Posted: 2019-01-16 08:49:55 (CT)    [ 760 views ]

Today is probably a good day to mention something I've begun to notice in the NBA as related to the VMI.   On Tuesday night Golden State went balistic on the Denver Nuggets.  The Warriors set NBA records.

This points out two, maybe three things I've stated in this website, one (at least) that I'm going to need to change.  It also pointed out one thing I'll keep without changing.  

The Warriors came into Denver from their sea level location and sported a Plus 21.59 VMI.  That means they were used to launching the ball with additional power by about 4 inches more than they needed to use in Denver.  The adjustment normally means that accuracy in shooting should suffer like it did in October when they last visited Denver and shot only 24.1% three pointers.  

Not only did the Warriors kill the Nuggets from every distance and angle, they shot 53.8% from downtown.  

The thing I've been noticing lately that appears to be incorrect is this:  

I have stated that it matters not whether a team is a plus VMI or a minus VMI, the fact they need to adjust should return similar results.  I now believe that is a wrong assessment in the NBA.  It is beginning to appear that visiting teams to Denver, Utah, Phoenix, Atlanta and Minnesota sporting a higher than normal Plus VMI, have an easier time adjusting to accuracy than teams leaving those arenas and traveling to sea level.   A team leaving a higher altitude location  would naturally sport a high Minus VMI and their normal thrust would leave the ball a few inches short.  

The data is showing that being able to shoot further in a more relaxed state of being while arriving in Denver and other higher elevations is returning a little better results than the opposite situation.  That is; it is better to be in the plus VMI, than the minus VMI.  

Something that appears to be wrong, may be only a temporary issue:  

Recently, I wrote that the three-point percentages in all the higher VMI Ranges had fallen below those in the low VMI Ranges.  With the Warriors' very high shooting number and percent on Tuesday, the range (probably temporarily) exceeds the shooting percent of the low VMI ranges.  

I will make changes to the text in our website as soon as I feel comfortable that these issues are not just temporary.  


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Previous Comments

From: Posted on: 2019-01-18

When I saw the results of that game, I immediately was hoping on some insight from you. 

I think as you've mentioned before, they were adjusting by shooting from further out as well. Curry is hard to gauge, because he can shoot from anywhere though.

Warriors are a cutting edge team in technology and I wouldn't doubt they read your stuff!


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