Posted: 2020-12-30 09:33:58 (CT) [ 1112 views ]
At VMI, we look for team tendencies. Certainly those of you who are fantasy basketball guru's are watching much more closely the play of individuals. Being more of a team analyst, we haven't seen the teams actually separate yet and our power index is not giving us a clear picture at this point.
Part of this is due to only a few games so far in the season and part of it is due to the overall optimism of the teams early in the season. Lack of injuries that will occur throughout the season and new players on each team will have a larger impact as the season progresses.
Within a couple weeks we should begin to see individual players' impact on their new teams including rookie impact. Much of our data is sorted by VMI Ranges from years past, so the power index should have meaning from day one, but will improve as the season progresses.
We do not know yet how the schedule (vastly different from previous seasons) will impact the teams' performance. We also do not know if the schedule impact will be defined within ADI Ranges and the VMI formula. We will be watching for this, knowing that two games against the same opponent in baseball is extremely telling, as is when MLB plays a four game vs a three game series.
NBA states on their website about the schedule as follows:
The schedule incorporates steps to reduce travel, including the use of a “series” model. In some instances where a team is scheduled to play twice in one market, those games have been scheduled to be played consecutively. Each team will play an average of four “series” in the First Half – two at home and two on the road. Additional steps include more instances of teams playing consecutive road games against teams that are geographically close, and roughly 50% fewer instances of teams making single-game road trips.
In past seasons in the NBA, we have seen that the geographical win-loss percentage begins showing up in January, or approximately half-way through the season. Extreme geographical transitions for the few games played in Denver and Utah should stand out relatively early.
