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Shooting Percentages of Toronto Raptors, Over Past Three Seasons

Posted: 2022-01-22 10:34:32 (CT)    [ 522 views ]

Coming up next --Miami Heat

The  Toronto Raptors  - three season data:

TEAM        AT HOME  Toronto   231 FT  ELEVATION

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                 3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+0.00 to +5.99               13.1                36.6            35.7           64        60.9%
-0.01 to -5.99                 13.1                36.0            36.4           89        61.8%

 

Toronto Raptors ON THE ROAD:  using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                 3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99            11.0                 35.0          31.4             3          0.0%
+18.00 to +20.99            11.5                 37.0          31.1             2        50.0%
+15.00 to +17.99            13.0                 33.0          39.4             1       100.0%
+12.00 to +14.99            12.0                 33.0          36.4             1           0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99                12.3                 35.1          35.2           12         66.7%
+0.00 to +2.99                13.2                 36.2          36.4           61         54.1%
-0.01 to -2.99                  13.8                 36.4          37.9           52         65.4%
-3.00 to -5.99                  14.0                 36.9          38.0             9         55.6%
-6.00 to -8.99                  12.5                 34.8          36.0             4         50.0%
-9.00 to -11.99                13.0                 41.0          31.7             1        100.0%
-12.00 to -14.99              15.0                 38.0          39.5             1        100.0%

 

RAPTORS CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                 3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+18.00 to +20.99             10.0               38.0          26.3             1           0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99                 11.0               32.0          34.4             1       100.0%
+0.00 to +2.99                 11.9               33.9          35.1           10         70.0%
-0.01 to -2.99                   12.5               35.3          35.5           13         46.2%
-3.00 to -5.99                   11.0               30.0          36.7             1       100.0%
-6.00 to -8.99                   13.5               34.0          39.7             2         50.0%

 

Summary for The Toronto Raptors:

The Raptors appear to be very consistent 3 pt shooters at home averaging 13.1 makes per game and of course winning 61% of the home games.  This season, '21-'22 they have been consistent on the road when playing in similar air densities to their home court.  When looking at the past several years' road trips, Toronto has struggled like all the other teams transistioning into higher altitudes at Denver and Utah where they have played five games and won 20% of them.  Their shooting of the three pointer matches other "near sea level" teams' averaging 11 makes for 31% shooting. 

Of course, there is still not nearly enough data to prove the point that air density is the cause, but it is a recurring storyline and has played out for all the teams over the course of 3 full and partial seasons.  The three point shooting percentage is more telling than is the win percent, because winning can be subject to many more team deficiency  components. 

So, what can be done about this issue if it is a significant cause of poor performance? 

Actually, there are a few things that can be done, but if the coaches don't know and acknowledge the issue, then nothing will be done.  However, the larger issue in the NBA is how it can help the fantasy players and the wagerers.  What we are showing is; 'if the teams are affected by air density transitions, then the individual players are affected, as well.'  Ultimately, the competition is affected, so it can be a tool in wagering and fantasy sports. 

As I have commented in previous writings, it appears this is a larger issue for major universities than for the NBA as there are many more teams competing from many more locations across the nation; i.e over 60 teams above 1,000 feet elevation and an additional 30 plus teams above 2,000 feet elevation.  In one-and-done tournaments and in a league where every single game is important to both success and financial remuneration, then this is a subject that should be massaged to some conclusions and anecdotes.

 

The  Philadelphia 76ers  - three season data:

TEAM        AT HOME  Philadelphia    45 FT  ELEVATION

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+0.00 to +5.99               12.0                30.9           38.7            58        74.1%
-0.01 to -5.99                 11.1                30.5           36.5            89        70.8%
-6.00 to -11.99               11.0                27.0           40.7              2       100.0%

Philadelphia 76ers ON THE ROAD:  using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99           14.0                 36.0          38.9              1         0.0%
+18.00 to +20.99            9.5                  30.5          31.1              4        25.0%
+15.00 to +17.99            8.0                  25.0          32.0              1         0.0%
+12.00 to +14.99          12.0                  27.5          43.6              2        50.0%
+3.00 to +5.99              11.3                 29.7          38.0             17        58.8%
+0.00 to +2.99              10.4                 30.0          34.7             69        52.2%
-0.01 to -2.99                10.5                 30.2          34.9             47        44.7%
-3.00 to -5.99                12.0                 26.0          46.2               1       100.0%
-6.00 to -8.99                12.5                 38.0          32.9               4        75.0%
-15.00 to -17.99            10.0                  28.0         35.7               1          0.0%

76ERS CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+18.00 to +20.99            6.0                 29.0             20.7           1          0.0%
+12.00 to +14.99          11.0                 29.0             37.9           1      100.0%
+3.00 to +5.99              13.0                 31.5             41.3           2      100.0%
+0.00 to +2.99              11.5                 29.4             39.1          14       64.3%
-0.01 to -2.99                  9.7                 28.7             33.7            9       66.7%
-15.00 to -17.99             10.0                28.0             35.7             1         0.0%

Summary for The Philadelphia 76ers:     

The Sixers are dominant on the road, except in unique environments.  Sound familiar?  Yes, as of today (Feb-11-22) they are 18-10 on the road and good at home, as well.  However, when traveling to those two unique road venues of Denver and Utah, they have not played like themselves. 

Similar to other sea level teams, when Philly travels to Denver and Utah over the past 3 years, they have won only  one game out of six above a plus 15 VMI and only 2 of 8 above a plus 12 VMI. If you have not read about other sea level teams traveling to Denver and subsequently transitioning to other slightly higher or somewhat lower elevations, then a big issue is adjusting to three point shooting differences due to air resistance.  The 76ers are subject to these, as well. 

The physiology of traveling to Denver or Utah is well known and has been for decades.  That is; when traveling to higher altitudes, the thin air creates issues with breathing comfortably.   However, the shooting adjustments that must be made are not so well known. 

The teams in the NBA may not care about several games per year going south from shooting adjustments, because it would appear that does not cost them money in the long run.  Where this does make a difference is the individual who is betting or is playing fantasy basketball.  Those players can either lose money or make money and they should be paying attention to this detail.  In fact, we checked for this issue in the NCAA several years ago and found a 9% shooting deficiency by teams transitioning from their home stadium to locations more than 2,000 feet different.  It appears it is more of an issue for men's and women's Division one college basketball, than for the NBA.

In the NCAA Division One there are over 150 men's teams, and a similar number of women's teams that can qualify for the NCAA Tournament Bracket, during the March Madness tournament.  The teams who do not need to make a severe shooting adjustment will naturally have an advantage in a one-and-done bracket. 

 

The  Los Angeles Lakers  - three season data:

TEAM        AT HOME  Lakers 200 FT ELEVATION

                                                                        AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+0.00 to +5.99               11.0                31.8            34.7            65       50.8%
-0.01 to -5.99                 10.6                31.7            33.4            81       66.7%
-6.00 to -11.99               12.7                34.7            36.5              3     100.0%
-12.00 to -17.99             11.0                38.0            28.9              1        0.0%

 

Los Angeles Lakers ON THE ROAD:  using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99             8.0                30.7           26.1           3            0.0%
+18.00 to +20.99             6.5                26.0           25.0           2          50.0%
+15.00 to +17.99             6.5                30.0           21.7           2           0.0%
+9.00 to +11.99             14.0                29.0           48.3           1        100.0%
+3.00 to +5.99                9.9                 30.2          32.9          16         56.2%
+0.00 to +2.99              12.1                 33.5          36.1          52         55.8%
-0.01 to -2.99                10.9                 31.9          34.3          59         44.1%
-3.00 to -5.99                10.0                 28.0          35.7            4         75.0%
-6.00 to -8.99                13.0                 32.0          40.6            2        100.0%
-12.00 to -14.99            17.0                 36.0          47.2            1        100.0%

 

LAKERS CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99           10.0                 30.0          33.3            1          0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99               12.7                 35.7          35.5            3        66.7%
+0.00 to +2.99               13.5                 37.3          36.2           10       40.0%
-0.01 to -2.99                 11.1                 34.3          32.4           10       20.0%
-3.00 to -5.99                 13.0                 30.0          43.3             1      100.0%

Summary for The Los Angeles Lakers:

As everyone knows, the Lakers have struggled to stay on top the past several years.  Not only with the emergence of Golden State, but also because of losing other top players along with the aging of Lebron James.  Regardless, I am more interested in how the outside shooting may be affected by transitional basketball. 

As you can see above, in the seven games above a plus 16 VMI (meaning they have traveled from sea level to either Denver or Utah) the Lakers' have averaged only 7 three pointers made per game.  Combined those seven games produced a 24.5% three pointers made on 29 attempts per game.  Their overall win percent in those games is 14.3% wins. 

Interestingly, when taking an additional look at the overall Field Goal category, they have not faired well either.  Where the league averages near 50% made on Field Goals, the Lakers have made only 41.1% of their 89 attempts per game in those 7 games.  To the Lakers defense; Denver and Utah have had dominating big men over that period, as well, so getting to the basket has been more difficult.  However, it makes sense that when outside shooting is struggling and the physical toll higher altitudes take on the visiting teams, then confidence will become an additional factor in shooting, as well. 

When leaving Denver and/or Utah and traveling back toward sea level as identified by the higher minus VMI's between -8 and -15.99, the Lakers have performed far better as if they feel a big relief to be back to more normal conditions.  That would be a typical response in my opinion.  But, it also is an additional indication that playing at high altitude does not affect subsequent physiological performances at lower altitude.

Obviously the shooting adjustments must be made for the transistion, but the Lakers, upon leaving for only a couple games seem to be able to do that fairly well amidst a great sigh of relief to be back closer to their home environment. 

 

The  Golden State Warriors  - three season data:

TEAM        AT HOME  Golden State  -15 FT ELEVATION

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+0.00 to +5.99               13.6                35.5            38.2           42        69.0%
-0.01 to -5.99                 13.1                36.1            36.3           95        58.9%
-6.00 to -11.99               13.5                36.8            36.7             6        50.0%

 

Golden State ON THE ROAD:  using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99            16.0                34.0             47.1          2         50.0%
+18.00 to +20.99            12.2                31.8             38.4          5         40.0%
+15.00 to +17.99            12.0                28.0             42.9          1           0.0%
+12.00 to +14.99              7.0                29.0             24.1          1           0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99                12.2                34.6             35.2        22          50.0%
+0.00 to +2.99                13.0                35.7             36.4        68          47.1%
-0.01 to -2.99                  13.7                36.2             37.9        29          58.6%
-3.00 to -5.99                  11.0                35.2             31.2          5          40.0%
-6.00 to -8.99                    9.0                37.0             24.3          1        100.0%

Warriors CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+3.00 to +5.99               13.6                 37.6            36.2           5          60.0%
+0.00 to +2.99               14.2                 40.9            34.8         12          66.7%
-0.01 to -2.99                 12.7                 35.3            35.8           3          66.7%
-3.00 to -5.99                   9.0                 33.7            26.7           3          33.3%

Summary for The Golden State Warriors: 

Unless I'm missing some games, and I don't think I am; the Warriors have not made a trip to Denver or Utah this season causing them to need to transition back toward sea level.  Their win percentages appear to suffer somewhat when making that trip, just as do other teams.  In the ten games they have played when transitioning to high altitude and back, over the past three seasons, they have won three of 9 at the two high altitude venues and then one on the way back toward sea level.  So, they are 40% winners on those trips and when returning home after being on those trips are only 50% winners in six additional games, even though they have a good three point percentage in many of those games.
My take on this is that the elevation related lung issue is on full display and takes its toll on the road teams, including the Warriors.  When returning home, the three point shot may be an additional part of the win percent drop. 

Obviously, we would like to have more games' data on these issues per team, but it does appear to be a re-occuring scenario throughout the league. 

 

The  New York Knicks  - three season data:

TEAM        AT HOME  New York Knicks  45 FT ELEVATION

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+0.00 to +2.99               11.8                 31.4          37.6            49       40.8%
-0.01 to -2.99                 11.2                 31.7          35.3            77       40.3%
-3.00 to -5.99                 13.0                 28.0          46.4              1     100.0%
-6.00 to -8.99                   7.5                 27.0          27.8              2       50.0%

New York ON THE ROAD:  using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99             8.0                 32.0          25.0              1         0.0%    Trips To Den/Ut
+18.00 to +20.99           10.7                 29.0          36.8              3         0.0%     Trips To Den/Ut
+15.00 to +17.99           15.0                 32.0          46.9              1         0.0%     Trips To Den/Ut
+12.00 to +14.99           11.0                 27.0          40.7              1         0.0%      Trips To Den/Ut/Az
+3.00 to +5.99               10.3                 28.5         36.0             26       46.2%
+0.00 to +2.99               11.2                 31.0         36.3             50       38.0%
-0.01 to -2.99                 10.2                 29.9          34.2             39      23.1%
-3.00 to -5.99                 12.0                 34.3          35.0              3         0.0%
-6.00 to -8.99                 10.5                 31.2          33.6              4       25.0%
-12.00 to -14.99             11.0                  37.0          29.7             1      100.0%     Trips From Den/Ut To other

NEW YORK CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+3.00 to +5.99               11.9                32.7           36.2             7         57.1%
+0.00 to +2.99               12.4                36.7           33.9             9         55.6%
-0.01 to -2.99                 13.0                35.7           36.4             6         33.3%
-6.00 to -8.99                 12.0                36.0           33.3             1           0.0%

Summary for The New York Knicks:

In trips to Denver/Utah including the ensuing 2nd and 3rd games of the trip, the New York Knicks are winless over the course of the past three seasons.  Since shooting percentages are not dramatically low, it appears they are able to adjust.  The number of games is not enough to determine anything certain, so we will need to keep watching that issue.  The league as a whole does seem to suffer the effects of playing at high altitude from both shooting adjustments and physiological issues which is not a new discovery. Fortunately, New York does not need to travel to those extreme environments often, because at this time, there is not a practical solution for adjusting to shooting at high altitudes nor for physiological adjustment within a day or so.   

Defensive rebounding appears to be the biggest issue for the Knicks.  Both home and road show low numbers in that category.  That can be caused by a number of things including coaching, determination, physical attributes, vigor or hopelessness or a combination of those things.

The Brookyn Nets  - three season data:

TEAM        AT HOME   Brooklyn Nets 25 FT ELEVATION

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+0.00 to +5.99               12.7                35.4          36.0             51        54.9%
-0.01 to -5.99                 12.6                35.4          35.6             90        60.0%

 

BROOKLYN ON THE ROAD:  using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+21.00 to +23.99            11.5               33.0           34.8             2         50.0%
+18.00 to +20.99            12.0               33.0           36.4             1       100.0%
+15.00 to +17.99            11.5               36.5           31.5             2          0.0%
+9.00 to +11.99               8.0                38.0           21.1             1          0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99               12.5                35.8           34.9           16         68.8%
+0.00 to +2.99               13.3                36.3           36.5           66         45.5%
-0.01 to -2.99                 13.6                36.5           37.3           44         54.5%
-3.00 to -5.99                 13.0                39.0           33.3             5         60.0%
-6.00 to -8.99                 18.0                50.0           36.0             1           0.0%
-9.00 to -11.99                 9.5                28.5           33.3             2         50.0%
-12.00 to -14.99             10.0                43.0            23.3            1        100.0%
   

BROOKLYN CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+0.00 to +5.99              12.1                31.3            38.8           14           64.3%
-0.01 to -5.99                12.6                32.6            38.6             9           88.9%

Summary for Brooklyn:

Teams from the East Coast rarely travel into the more extreme regions for road games.  If we combine those VMI Ranges greater than +5.99 Brooklyn has won 2 games of 6 on the road for an overall win percent of 33.3% wins.  Their 3-PT shooting percentage was definitely affected in those individual games, however where they have played three games in the highest altitudes, they have found some success; i.e., when they have played first in Denver, then Utah, then move to Phoenix or somewhere at a similar altitude of 1200 feet. The first games in Denver would be identified by the +21 to +24 VMI range and in Utah between +15 to +21.  Second games at a high altitude for the NBA would be depicted as those between +9 and +15 with first games in the higher elevations of the midwest (1200 feet elev) falling into the same VMI range.  Those first and second games of the road trips appear to have caused difficulties in shooting, but the games have periodically ended in wins for the Nets due to other aspects of the game. 

Most sports teams that play in robust physical conditions, find it difficult to breathe normally at Denver and Utah.  It is not a lack of oxygen (see Science/Physiology on this website and others) it is the lack of air pressure providing access to the available oxygen and therefore requiring deeper breathing within the lungs.  This may cause unusual losses for sea level teams at altitude because of the strenuous nature of basketball and the required defensive rebounding.

Brooklyn has had 4 games on the road outside their norm identified by the minus 6 to minus 17.99 VMI Ranges.  These are 4 games having left Colorado and Utah and traveled back toward sea level.  Of course some trips take them to Utah (4,600) first and then even higher to Denver which will cause the VMI range to be slightly different.  They are 50% wins and show a little difficulty with 3-PT range shooting in these trips.  However, it does not appear to have given them much concern overall due to so few games per season in Denver and Utah and traveling on to another venue or two after those unique ones. Overall, there is enough data here to show deviations from the 3 PT norm and winning percentages, due to air density. 

 

TEAM        AT HOME   UTAH 4600 FT ELEVATION

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+6.00 to +11.99               15.0                 39.5            38.0           35          65.7%
+0.00 to +5.99                14.3                 38.4            37.2            70         75.7%
-0.01 to -5.99                  15.2                 38.6            39.3            34         73.5%

UTAH ON THE ROAD:

                                                                         AVERAGES  PER GAME    
VMI RANGE                     3PM                 3PA        % MADE*    GAMES    WIN %

+6.00 to +11.99               12.5                37.0             33.8             4          75.0%
+0.00 to +5.99                13.8                39.8             34.6              8          25.0%
-0.01 to -5.99                  13.7                36.7             37.4            27          44.4%
-6.00 to -11.99                13.7                37.6             36.4             53         58.5%
-12.00 to -17.99               13.7               36.5             37.7             35          54.3%
-18.00 to -23.99          &

 

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