Posted: 2022-02-23 10:07:51 (CT) [ 985 views ]
TEAM AT HOME CHICAGO 605 FT ELEVATION
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+0.00 to +2.99 10.9 30.9 35.4 67 40.3%
-0.01 to -2.99 11.2 30.5 36.8 70 44.3%
-3.00 to -5.99 9.5 25.5 37.3 2 100.0%
-6.00 to -8.99 12.0 27.0 44.4 1 0.0%
CHICAGO BULLS ON THE ROAD:
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+21.00 to +23.99 (Trip------Gm 1 at Den or Utah) 8.0 31.0 25.8 1 100.0%
+18.00 to +20.99 (Trip------Gm 1 at Den or Utah) 17.0 35.0 48.6 1 0.0%
+15.00 to +17.99 (Trip------Gm 2 at Den or Utah) 9.0 28.8 31.3 4 0.0%
+6.00 to +8.99 ---------------------------------------- 4.0 16.0 25.0 1 100.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 ---------------------------------------- 15.0 39.0 38.5 1 100.0%
+0.00 to +2.99 ---------------------------------------- 12.0 32.0 37.4 35 37.1%
-0.01 to -2.99 ---------------------------------------- 10.9 30.1 36.3 67 41.8%
-3.00 to -5.99 ---------------------------------------- 10.2 29.9 34.1 20 25.0%
-6.00 to -8.99 (Trip------Gm 3*nearer sea level) 12.0 30.5 39.3 2 50.0%
-9.00 to -11.99 (Trip------Gm 3 nearer sea level) 14.0 28.0 50.0 1 100.0%
CHICAGO - CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+21.00 to +23.99 (Trip------Gm 1 at Den or Utah) 8.0 31.0 25.8 1 100.0%
+15.00 to +17.99 (Trip------Gm 2 at Den or Utah) 12.0 34.0 35.3 1 0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 ---------------------------------------- 15.0 39.0 38.5 1 100.0%
+0.00 to +2.99 ---------------------------------------- 11.6 28.7 40.3 7 57.1%
-0.01 to -2.99 ---------------------------------------- 10.5 29.4 35.8 17 47.1%
-3.00 to -5.99 ---------------------------------------- 11.6 30.1 38.4 7 28.6%
*Note: If a sea level team plays only 1 game at Denver or Utah, then travels to a midwest location, the VMI formula will calculate into the -6 to -12 VMI Range. Since Chicago is not a sea level team, but 600 feet, it is a little more difficult to determine by the VMI alone, whether they went to Denver, or Utah first.
Summary for The Chicago Bulls:
Teams such as Chicago from the Mid-West and West must transition to both lower elevations and higher elevations directly from their home environment. Sea Level teams transition only to higher elevations and equal elevations for their first road games of each trip.
Below, I have combined those Chicago games above 3 VMI (meaning 3-pt shooting would be affected by 1-1/2 inches or more where there is no room to spare between the basketball and the rim without an adjustment for distance by the shooter. These games are only those traveling to higher altitudes and to sea level from Chicago. Clarification: The plus VMI ranges below are those on the road where they transition upward in elevation from previous games at home and on the road. In this scenario, the ball will travel further than the players are used to, so shooting can be physically relaxing, but may be mentally frustrating while trying to adjust the shot.
The minus VMI ranges below are a mixture of both those road games where the Bulls have played at a high altitude for a game or two, and then transitioned back into lower altitudes, and also those games where they have left Chicago and traveled to sea level for their first game of the road trip. So, below I have split the transitioning back from high altitude from those games first leaving Chicago to play at sea level.
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+3 to +23.99 All Games Above 600 Feet Elev. 10.6 30.0 35.4% 8 37.5%
-3 to -5.99 Games From Chicago to Sea Level Venues 10.3 30.0 34.4% 21 23.8%
-6 to -11.99 Games Leaving Den/Utah to Lower Elev. 13.0 29.3 44.4% 3 66.7%
It would be interesting to see Michael Jordan's games in this type of graphic, because his focus was so acute. However, the current team and recent 3 full seasons of Chicago's 3-pt shooting is displayed above. While the overall 3-pt accuracy percentages in these games do not appear to be a problem, the numbers made per game, attempts and win percent would indicate there is a problem to solve if a team wants to always be competitive.
This graphic seems to indicate that plus three and minus 3 in VMI transitions may be significant. Of course, we don't have enough games to validate that at this time, but it is something we at VMI are going to look at closely over the next few seasons. One of the major features I would like to add is scoring by quarter for both the team and individual player.
It becomes extremely significant if Major College Basketball is affected, as I suspect it is, and I do have some data on that already.
TEAM AT HOME MEMPHIS 393 FT ELEVATION
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+0.00 to +2.99 10.8 31.2 34.7 59 44.1%
-0.01 to -2.99 10.8 31.0 34.7 78 62.8%
-3.00 to -5.99 11.0 34.0 32.4 4 75.0%
-6.00 to -8.99 10.0 32.3 30.9 3 33.3%
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES ON THE ROAD:
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+21.00 to +23.99 (Trip------Gm 1 at Den or Utah) 6.5 29.5 22.0 2 0.0%
+18.00 to +20.99 (Trip------Gm 2 at Den or Utah) 11.0 28.2 39.1 6 66.7%
+15.00 to +17.99 (Trip------Gm 2 at Den or Utah) 12.2 34.8 35.3 4 25.0%
+9.00 to +11.99 ---------------------------------------- 8.0 23.0 34.8 1 0.0%
+6.00 to +8.99 ---------------------------------------- 8.5 29.0 29.3 2 50.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 ---------------------------------------- 10.9 29.7 36.7 9 66.7%
+0.00 to +2.99 ---------------------------------------- 10.8 30.8 34.9 40 45.0%
-0.01 to -2.99 ---------------------------------------- 11.2 31.6 35.5 64 45.3%
-3.00 to -5.99 ---------------------------------------- 11.2 31.7 35.3 6 33.3%
-6.00 to -8.99 (Trip------Gm 2*nearer sea level) 9.4 30.0 31.2 8 37.5%
-9.00 to -11.99 (Trip------Gm 3 nearer sea level) 15.0 40.0 37.5 1 100.0%
-12.00 to -14.99 (Trip------Gm 3 nearer sea level) 11.0 31.0 35.5 1 100.0%
MEMPHIS CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+18.00 to +20.99 (Trip------Gm 1 at Den or Utah) 11.0 25.0 44.0 1 100.0%
+15.00 to +17.99 (Trip------Gm 2 at Den or Utah) 13.0 35.0 37.1 1 100.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 ---------------------------------------- 11.0 29.0 37.9 1 100.0%
+0.00 to +2.99 ---------------------------------------- 9.9 29.2 33.8 8 62.5%
-0.01 to -2.99 ---------------------------------------- 11.1 34.2 32.3 19 63.2%
-3.00 to -5.99 ---------------------------------------- 10.5 33.0 31.8 2 50.0%
-6.00 to -8.99 (Trip-----Gm 2*nearer sea level) 7.0 27.3 25.6 3 66.7%
*Note: If a sea level team plays only 1 game at Denver or Utah, then travels to a midwest location, the VMI formula will calculate into the -6 to -12 VMI Range. Since Memphis is not a sea level team, but 400 feet, it is a little more difficult to determine by the VMI alone, whether they went to Denver, or Utah first.
Summary for The Memphis Grizzlies:
Memphis has more games in the high plus teen VMI range than some sea level teams and fewer games above plus 20 VMI. This is because they get a 400 feet elevation head start toward those two high elevation teams; Denver and Utah. Over the last few years, they have struggled to get above that 12 three pointers per game, even at home. They have done better this year on the road, but in the past have had some pretty poor shooting games at high elevations.
Trips from home or sea level road games to Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Minnesota, Atlanta will place their VMI range between +6 and +12. It appears they have struggled to hit threes in those higher elevations (around 1000 feet) as well. Since it is only 3 games, the league and the Grizzlies can dismiss it as outlier data, but the air density can still be the culprit, of which fantasy players and wagerers can take advantage.
TEAM AT HOME BOSTON 25 FT ELEVATION
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+0.00 to +5.99 13.3 35.9 36.9 54 72.2%
-0.01 to -5.99 12.7 35.6 35.7 98 55.1%
-6.00 to -11.99 13.5 34.5 39.1 2 100.0%
BOSTON CELTICS ON THE ROAD: using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
*Note: If a sea level team plays only 1 game at Denver or Utah, then travels to a midwest location, the VMI formula will calculate into the -6 to -12 VMI Range.
BOSTON CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+18.00 to +20.99 (Trip------Gm 1 at Den or Utah) 14.0 39.0 35.9 1 0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 ------------------------------------------ 5.5 31.0 17.7 2 0.0%
+0.00 to +2.99 ------------------------------------------ 12.9 37.9 34.1 17 47.1%
-0.01 to -2.99 ------------------------------------------ 13.0 38.4 33.9 8 62.5%
-3.00 to -5.99 ------------------------------------------ 16.3 39.7 41.2 3 66.7%
-6.00 to -8.99 (Trip------Gm 2 nearer sea level) 21.0 37.0 56.8 1 100.0%
Summary for The Boston Celtics:
Boston shoots well and wins at home as well as any of the other top teams in the NBA. No surprise there. I don't yet know what to make of the difference in winning when the home VMI falls into the negative 0.00 to -5.99 range. Most of the teams seem to have been better in one category or the other at home, but there is not enough consistency in the data to draw conclusions. So, while I may want to dig deeper into that, this is not the time.
On the road, Boston shows the same tendencies as all the other top teams we have looked at thus far. No surprise there either. Since the current season shows the same indicators; that is, that when they travel to the extreme NBA venues in altitude it does seem to affect the shooting and definitely the winning percentage. So, we know that all the top teams from the extreme NBA venue at sea level have difficulty with both the shooting and the physiological adjustments. However, the bigger issue is that it affects all teams and therefore all individual players. So far, we have not identified any individuals who consistently overcome this shooting or physiological issue when traveling to high elevations from their home court at sea level.
TEAM AT HOME MIAMI 15 FT ELEVATION
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
MIAMI HEAT ON THE ROAD: using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
MIAMI HEAT CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE VMI Description 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
Summary for The Miami Heat:
Yes, it's a broken record playing here. Miami is consistent in 3-pt shooting and winning at home, but not so much in the unique environments. Not surprising in the least, as that has been normal since basketball began as far as I know. However, what may be surprising is that air density appears to be a legitimate cause. This season, Miami shot okay in game 1 at high altitude but did not win. In fact, the Heat have won only 1 game of 7 played at higher altitude for a 14.3% win percentage in those locations. Then, upon leaving those higher altitudes and traveling nearer sea level have won only 1 game of 7 over the past 3 years for a win percent of 14.3 as well.
Of course, as I have pointed out in other summaries, 3-pt shooting deficiencies are not always the reason for a loss. Physiological stress playing at higher altitudes than one is normally used to exertion within, is an additional legitimate reason for a loss in Basketball, Hockey, Football and Soccer, etc, but not at all in Baseball.
The Heat have not only won at home in familiar conditions, but they have also been consistent 3-pt shooters and winners on the road when playing in similar road conditions to their norm at home. At home, Miami averages close to 13 three pointers made per game for a near 37% efficiency rate. On the road, when the Heat transition into the same VMI ranges (0 to 6 VMI) both positive and negative (absolute) they tend to average the same numbers made and a very similar efficiency rate. However, more extreme VMI ranges generated by games played and subsequent transitions from higher altitudes bring those numbers down. They have been averaging about 11 three pointers made and a less efficient rate in most of those categories.
TEAM AT HOME Toronto 231 FT ELEVATION
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+0.00 to +5.99 13.1 36.6 35.7 64 60.9%
-0.01 to -5.99 13.1 36.0 36.4 89 61.8%
Toronto Raptors ON THE ROAD: using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+21.00 to +23.99 11.0 35.0 31.4 3 0.0%
+18.00 to +20.99 11.5 37.0 31.1 2 50.0%
+15.00 to +17.99 13.0 33.0 39.4 1 100.0%
+12.00 to +14.99 12.0 33.0 36.4 1 0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 12.3 35.1 35.2 12 66.7%
+0.00 to +2.99 13.2 36.2 36.4 61 54.1%
-0.01 to -2.99 13.8 36.4 37.9 52 65.4%
-3.00 to -5.99 14.0 36.9 38.0 9 55.6%
-6.00 to -8.99 12.5 34.8 36.0 4 50.0%
-9.00 to -11.99 13.0 41.0 31.7 1 100.0%
-12.00 to -14.99 15.0 38.0 39.5 1 100.0%
RAPTORS CURRENT SEASON ON THE ROAD:
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+18.00 to +20.99 10.0 38.0 26.3 1 0.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 11.0 32.0 34.4 1 100.0%
+0.00 to +2.99 11.9 33.9 35.1 10 70.0%
-0.01 to -2.99 12.5 35.3 35.5 13 46.2%
-3.00 to -5.99 11.0 30.0 36.7 1 100.0%
-6.00 to -8.99 13.5 34.0 39.7 2 50.0%
Summary for The Toronto Raptors:
The Raptors appear to be very consistent 3 pt shooters at home averaging 13.1 makes per game and of course winning 61% of the home games. This season, '21-'22 they have been consistent on the road when playing in similar air densities to their home court. When looking at the past several years' road trips, Toronto has struggled like all the other teams transistioning into higher altitudes at Denver and Utah where they have played five games and won 20% of them. Their shooting of the three pointer matches other "near sea level" teams' averaging 11 makes for 31% shooting.
Of course, there is still not nearly enough data to prove the point that air density is the cause, but it is a recurring storyline and has played out for all the teams over the course of 3 full and partial seasons. The three point shooting percentage is more telling than is the win percent, because winning can be subject to many more team deficiency components.
So, what can be done about this issue if it is a significant cause of poor performance?
Actually, there are a few things that can be done, but if the coaches don't know and acknowledge the issue, then nothing will be done. However, the larger issue in the NBA is how it can help the fantasy players and the wagerers. What we are showing is; 'if the teams are affected by air density transitions, then the individual players are affected, as well.' Ultimately, the competition is affected, so it can be a tool in wagering and fantasy sports.
As I have commented in previous writings, it appears this is a larger issue for major universities than for the NBA as there are many more teams competing from many more locations across the nation; i.e over 60 teams above 1,000 feet elevation and an additional 30 plus teams above 2,000 feet elevation. In one-and-done tournaments and in a league where every single game is important to both success and financial remuneration, then this is a subject that should be massaged to some conclusions and anecdotes.
TEAM AT HOME Philadelphia 45 FT ELEVATION
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+0.00 to +5.99 12.0 30.9 38.7 58 74.1%
-0.01 to -5.99 11.1 30.5 36.5 89 70.8%
-6.00 to -11.99 11.0 27.0 40.7 2 100.0%
Philadelphia 76ers ON THE ROAD: using new tool at 3 VMI per range.......
AVERAGES PER GAME
VMI RANGE 3PM 3PA % MADE* GAMES WIN %
+21.00 to +23.99 14.0 36.0 38.9 1 0.0%
+18.00 to +20.99 9.5 30.5 31.1 4 25.0%
+15.00 to +17.99 8.0 25.0 32.0 1 0.0%
+12.00 to +14.99 12.0 27.5 43.6 2 50.0%
+3.00 to +5.99 11.3 29.7 38.0 17 58.8%
+0.00 to +2.99 10.4 30.0 34.7 69 52.2%
-0.01 to -2.99 10.5 &nb
