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At All Star Break - Without All Fans Back

Posted: 2021-03-06 08:23:05 (CT)    [ 918 views ]

Now that we have 3 months of competition in the NBA, some of the overall win percentage between home teams and road teams are showing more signs.  We expected some deviation from previous full years of competition and it appears that is showing.

Below in red lettering are the new Home/Road percentages through the All Star break.

As I've mentioned before, the 2020 finish to the 2019-2020 campaign having been held in Orlando for all teams, was a good study whereby neither team had their home fans and neither team was bothered by any elevation changes when traveling.  Also, there was no lack of familiarity built into the arena itself, which some speculate could be part of the road teams' normal struggle to compete.   

So far, the 2021 campaign without all the fans for the home team, but with the change in scenery and the elevation changes affecting both the physiological comfort of the player and the density of the air, is actually beginning to be a story. 

Previous to the 2020 finish in Orlando, stats on home vs road win percentages without elevation changes identified by VMI were as follows:

HOME  2018 - March 2020

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in 969 games; Home Team win percent .................................... 52.4%

2. VMI ranges between  -0.00 to -5.99 in 1069 games; Home Team win percent ................................... 55.0%

ROAD  2018 - March 2020

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in 802 games;   Road Team win percent ................................... 42.4%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in 962 games;     Road Team win percent ................................... 39.6%

So we have identified that all factors in the NBA combine to create a 10% advantage to the home team when there is little to no environmental factors over the course of a full season in the VMI ranges where neither team also has no factors causing them to shoot significantly long from 3 point range. 

And, the home team has a 15.4% advantage over visiting teams where neither team carries environmetal factors causing them to shoot significantly short of the center of the rim on 3 point shots. 

HOME   2020 Finish in "The Bubble"  (no advantage from fans or disadvantage by elevation of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in    82 games; Home Team win percent ................................... 35.4%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in      85 games; Home Team win percent ....................................45.9%

ROAD   2020 Finish in "The Bubble"  (no advantage from fans or disadvantage by elevation of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in   80 games;   Road Team win percent .................................... 38.8%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in    87 games;     Road Team win percent ................................... 44.8%

Home   2021 Campaign (no advantage from fans, with only slight elevation changes of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in 253 games;   Home Team win percent ..(90 days was 45.6)...... 49.0%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in  253 games;   Home Team win percent ...(90 days was 51.6)...... 53.4%

 Road   2021 Campaign (no advantage from fans, with only slight elevation changes of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in   193 games;   Road Team win percent ..(90 days was 45.5)...... 47.2%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in   253 games;     Road Team win percent ...(90 days was 50.7)..... 48.2%

So, Home teams have gained and road teams have stepped back a little, except in the "low' plus VMI ranges.  Larger VMI ranges will be checked at the end of the season, but for now, we are looking at the differences between the games in the "Bubble" vs similar air pressure changes for teams outside it. 

Of course, the 2021 Campaign will provide us more games from which to see separation, but we may be able to provide some good data from this information. 

For the present, you are left to your own judgement as to how significant this data may be.

 

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