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Past Three Seasons' Monthly 3-pt Shooting and Monthly Win Percent + December

Posted: 2021-11-11 08:48:32 (CT)    [ 932 views ]

Three Point Shooting:

This is what we've collected over past Decembers for normal seasons.  I will update this in mid December and accumulate all normal Decembers again after months end.

Accumulated 3-point shooting percentages for Decembers

    VMI Range                      HOME  3-pt             ROAD 3-pt

-18.00 to -23.99                                                 36.4%
-12.00 to -17.99                                                 29.8%
-6.00 to -11.99                     36.4%                    33.1%
-0.01 to -5.99                       36.3%                    35.6%
+0.00 to +5.99                     33.2%                    35.1%
+6.00 to +11.99                   35.1%                     n/a
+12.00 to +17.99                                               29.5%
+18.00 to +23.99                                               36.5%

Why is the shooting percentage n/a for road teams in the +6 to +11.99 VMI category?

There are simply few games played in this category by road teams.  The reason this happens is because there are no teams in the league between 1200 feet elevation and 4,000 feet elevation.  Phoenix is the highest elevation at 1100 feet for all the teams except Utah at 4,500 ft. (approximately) and Denver at approximately 5,200 ft. elevation. So, road teams that transition take a huge jump down in elevation from the highest elevation and the thinnest air to Phoenix, so the minus VMI's in all the categories  is often in play.  However when teams jump from sea level to Denver or Utah and play only two games there, then transition back to no more than 1200 ft elevation, the +6 to +11.99 category is many times skipped.  This category would be populated with more games if there were a few teams in places at about 2,000 ft elevation, such as: Ashland, North Carolina; Midland, Texas; Tucson, Arizona or Las Vegas, Nevada.

Overall 3-point shooting percentages for November

Final for this month, plus previous November shooting appears to be better as the season progresses.  The best indicators are the zero to 5.99 in both the positive and negative VMI ranges.

As the season progresses, 3 point shooting in the 0 to 5.99 Ranges should increase thru about December, then may settle at a lower percentage.

    VMI Range                      HOME  3-pt             ROAD 3-pt


-18.00 to -23.99                                               34.1%
-12.00 to -17.99                                              38.2%
-6.00 to -11.99                    35.5%                   31.5%
-0.01 to -5.99                      35.3%                   35.2%
+0.00 to +5.99                    35.9%                   33.8%
+6.00 to +11.99                   33.8%                   26.9%
+12.00 to +17.99                                             39.2%
+18.00 to +23.99                                             32.7%
I updated these numbers after all games for November 2021 came in.

Overall 3-point shooting percentages for October

(as the season progresses, shooting in the 0 to 5.99 Ranges should increase)

    VMI Range                      HOME  3-pt             ROAD 3-pt

-18.00 to -23.99                                                  36.4%
-12.00 to -17.99                                                  32.1%
-6.00 to -11.99                     36.4%                     32.0%
-0.01 to -5.99                       35.7%                     34.9%
+0.00 to +5.99                     33.6%                     34.9%
+6.00 to +11.99                     35.1%                      n/a
+12.00 to +17.99                                                26.0%
+18.00 to +23.99                                                32.4%


Monthly Win Percentages:

What is significant about Monthly Win Percent?

In Professional sports, the seasons are long and the impact not only takes its toll on the body, but also has a psychological impact when competing at that level week-in and week-out.  So, one of the important aspects of looking at win percent is to anticipate when these mental let downs and upticks may happen and can they be anticipated.

October is a tough month in the NBA to determine the overall team power.  Of course, as the season progresses, injuries, etc. will determine a lot of the consistency leading up to the All-Star break and the play-off picture. 

The NBA also had a weird ending to the 2019-2020 season with the finals in the NBA played in the Fall as opposed to the Spring, so October of this year makes only the third time since 2018 that it was actually the start of the season. So, it is easy to understand why the money lines in Vegas are huge in the NBA until they have a better read on the current teams.

The games played in the Bubble in Orlando to end the 2020 campaign gave us a read on the home team advantage due to the normal fan enthusiasm and the visiting teams adjustment to a slightly or no differential in terms of environment.  However, it did not give us anything for the start of the 2020-2021 season it being in December of that year. 

So, below is the win percent we have collected for each of the home and road VMI ranges in October, when the season first begins. Remember, the VMI ranges differentiate the anticipated player reaction to length of travel for three point shooting.  The distance of the shot is affected by greater air resistance when located at sea level vs lesser air resistance at higher elevation venues.  Therefore, VMI ranges in the plus categories identify shooting that is normal to easier for the player to shoot longer and minus VMI ranges identify shooting that is normal to harder to shoot the 3 point shot for the player that is more used to shooting within the higher elevation NBA venues.


December   (Accumulated past Decembers of each season except 2020)


                                            HOME                            ROAD                
                                             WIN%                            WIN%

-18.00 to -23.99                                                         50.0%
-12.00 to -17.99                                                         57.1%
-6.00 to -11.99                       60.0%                          40.8%
-0.01 to -5.99                         57.0%                         44.3%
+0.00 to +5.99                       57.9%                         43.7%
+6.00 to +11.99                    100%                          100%
+12.00 to +17.99                                                       15.4%
+18.00 to +23.99                                                       20.0%

November   (Accumulated past Novembers of the season except 2020) 

                                           HOME                            ROAD                
                                             WIN%                            WIN%

-18.00 to -23.99                                                         33.3%
-12.00 to -17.99                                                          42.8%
-6.00 to -11.99                       58.7%                           37.2%
-0.01 to -5.99                          57.9%                         44.4%
+0.00 to +5.99                        60.4%                         39.0%
+6.00 to +11.99                         0%                           20.0%
+12.00 to +17.99                                                       40.0%
+18.00 to +23.99                                                        36.0%


October   (Accumulated past four starts of the season except 2020)        
                                            HOME                            ROAD
                                             WIN%                            WIN%
-18.00 to -23.99                                                          66.7%
-12.00 to -17.99                                                          90.0%
-6.00 to -11.99                       100%                            33.3%
-0.01 to -5.99                          53.8%                         39.6%
+0.00 to +5.99                        52.9%                         41.8%
+6.00 to +11.99                     100%                             n/a
+12.00 to +17.99                                                         n/a
+18.00 to +23.99                                                        44.4%

These games represent less than half a month per season, so there are far fewer games in October than in the balance of the months of each season.  However, it is also the first month away from normal venues for road teams, so we expect some of these Road percentages to be relatively stable in years to come.  That is; the win percentages for road teams should stabilize a little with additional years added, but are probably already showing substantial truth. The extremes do show Utah and Denver being very strong, but that will change on the road when dominant big men are no longer available.

There are also many more games played in the 0 to 5.99 ranges than in the outlying VMI ranges.


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