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Coming Shortly - List of Teams to Watch Out for in Conference and NCAA Tourneys

Posted: 2024-02-20 06:45:25 (CT)    [ 10 views ]

Although historically coaches have been cautious about encouraging the long range shooting, over the past couple of decades however, high school and college coaches alike have moved in the direction of encouragement to pump the long ones.  

At one time, any player who shot 40% was considered to have a hot hand in that game.  Now, entire teams of shooters hit 45% regularly and 55% is considered a team of hot shooters.  The days of 35% being good or even acceptible are gone and shooting in the mid 20% ranges will only contribute to a losing effort. 

What Juju Watkins of USC did on February 2, 2024 at Stanford was absolutely stunning.  Of her 51 points, 18 came off threes, 28 points off twos and 17 of 19 free throws.  Since both teams play most of their games on the California coast, then the VMI's for the game were both at 0.00--meaning no barometric air pressure issues were affecting either team.

This freshman gal is one to watch.


1-14-2024  Indiana Pacers Travel to Denver and Shoot 27.6% from 3-pt Range sporting a VMI of +21.72, the team tallied 8 shots made of 29 attempts.

Then, on 1-15-2024, they traveled on to Utah sporting a +8.27 VMI and repeated the performance.  The team combined to shoot 29% on 9 of 31 shooting.

1-18-2024 - Upon arriving in Sacramento - but carrying a Utah or Denver typical 1st game road VMI of -19.44, the team almost shot in the 40% range and won the game.  Overall, Indiana plays many more games in a Sacramento type environment than that of Denver or Utah.  No question they were happy to come down from the mountain.



Considering Gonzaga, also check out San Diego's VMI against New Mexico and the game at Colorado before that. 


It may be that I need to lower my expectations of what the VMI represents.  Yes, I have stated in this website that a -7.00 or +7.00 or greater creates the biggest risk for poor shooting from outside.  That is; if a team travels to an apponents venue, the VMI will show how far off the shooters adjustment will initially be for that game.  Some players cannot make the adjustment for the entire game, while others can get in a groove during the second half.  But, it definitely affects the game.

On Thursday night, Gonzaga on 2 of 20 shooting, had one of those games:

Thursday 1-11-24, Gonzaga traveled to Santa Clara sporting a -4.00 VMI, indicating they would need to adjust a few inches on their 3 point shots and a little on the longer 2 pointers, as well.  All that Gonzaga needed was one three-pointer more, or even a 2 pointer more to win the game. 

True to the form that I've observed over the past two seasons in  D-1 College Basketball a (+ or -) 4.00 VMI rating is enough to create issues for a team. 

So I now have enough data that I am lowering the danger level to 4.00 from 7.00  VMI.  Sometimes it is overcome by one shooter who gets adjusted earlier than the others, but nothing helped Gonzaga last night.

                 Gonzaga  At   Santa Clara

TEAM                           SCORE                  VMI
Gonzaga                         76                      -4.00
Santa Clara( Elev: 59)   77                      -1.00
    Name       POS         FGM-A         3PM-A          FTM-A     
    Player 1      G            1-9                0-3              2-2     
    Player 2      F            2-6                0-0               1-2     
    Player 3      G            9-19             1-6               2-3     
    Player 4      G            0-2                0-2              0-0
    Player 5      F          14-18              0-2              4-4
    Player 6      F            0-3                0-3               0-2
    Player 7      F            6-10              1-4               1-1
                                      ----                  ----            ----
            Totals              32-67            2-20            10-14


As you can see, Gonzaga had a horrific shooting night from 3-Point Range causing a loss to a supposedly lesser team.  This happens more frequently than not.  Gonzaga will become a +4 or so team when they return home.  When teams return home, the VMI is less telling, due to the home teams' familiarity with their own arena.  However, visiting teams are extremely  affected by changing altitudes.      


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