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Approx. 90 days Without Fans...

Posted: 2021-02-04 09:39:39 (CT)    [ 269 views ]

By the end of the first two months in the NBA, we normally see a fairly clear picture of both power differentials among the teams in the league and a differential between winning at home vs. road. 

As I've mentioned before, the 2020 finish to the 2019-2020 campaign having been held in Orlando for all teams, was a good study whereby neither team had their home fans and neither team was bothered by any elevation changes when traveling.  Also, there was no lack of familiarity built into the arena itself, which some speculate could be part of the road teams' normal struggle to compete.   

So far, the 2021 campaign without all the fans for the home team, but with the change in scenery and the elevation changes affecting both the physiological comfort of the player and the density of the air, is actually beginning to be a story. 

Previous to the 2020 finish in Orlando, stats on home vs road win percentages without elevation changes identified by VMI were as follows:

HOME  2018 - March 2020

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in 969 games; Home Team win percent .................................... 52.4%

2. VMI ranges between  -0.00 to -5.99 in 1069 games; Home Team win percent ................................... 55.0%

ROAD  2018 - March 2020

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in 802 games;   Road Team win percent ................................... 42.4%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in 962 games;     Road Team win percent ................................... 39.6%

So we have identified that all factors in the NBA combine to create a 10% advantage to the home team when there is little to no environmental factors over the course of a full season in the VMI ranges where neither team also has no factors causing them to shoot significantly long from 3 point range. 

And, the home team has a 15.4% advantage over visiting teams where neither team carries environmetal factors causing them to shoot significantly short of the center of the rim on 3 point shots. 

HOME   2020 Finish in "The Bubble"  (no advantage from fans or disadvantage by elevation of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in    82 games; Home Team win percent ................................... 35.4%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in      85 games; Home Team win percent ....................................45.9%

ROAD   2020 Finish in "The Bubble"  (no advantage from fans or disadvantage by elevation of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in   80 games;   Road Team win percent .................................... 38.8%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in    87 games;     Road Team win percent ................................... 44.8%

HOME   2021 Campaign  (no advantage from fans, with only slight elevation changes of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in 149 games;   Home Team win percent ................................... 45.6%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in  155 games;   Home Team win percent .................................... 51.6%

ROAD   2021 Campaign  (no advantage from fans, with only slight elevation changes of venue)

1. VMI ranges between +0.00 to +5.99 in   121 games;   Road Team win percent .................................. 45.5%

2. VMI ranges between -0.00 to -5.99 in   152 games;     Road Team win percent .................................. 50.7%

Of course, the 2021 Campaign will provide us more games from which to see separation, but we may be able to provide some good data from this information. 

For the present, you are left to your own judgement as to how significant this data may be.

 

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Article Summary

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